Even though law-abiding citizens, taxpayers, and businesses are leaving California in droves, most Golden Staters are staying – for now at least.
For a few, the decision to leave is easy and reasons numerous. Who wouldn’t want better job opportunities, a tax cut and a lower cost of living? But for many more, it’s a tough call.
Older Californians often stay for their children and grandchildren. But young people, who would otherwise prefer to stay in California for the lifestyle and recreation, are ultimately compelled to pack up and go because of the ridiculously high housing costs. They simply can’t afford not to leave.
Those of us who speak and write frequently on the state’s legendary dysfunctional governance hear the same question from those who remain uncertain of the future of California: Is there any hope for California and what would it take to put the state back on track?
We don’t have a crystal ball, but it would depend almost entirely on the extent to which voters reject the dysfunctional one-party rule that has inflicted so much damage on the Golden State. If they did, fundamental change could happen much faster than one might think.
Take Argentina, for example. At the beginning of the 20th century the country’s name was synonymous with wealth. With vast reserves of natural resources, including minerals and millions of acres of productive land, Argentina was one of the richest nations in the world on a per capita basis. But starting in the 40s, the country began its long struggle with inflation. Today, at a whopping 211%, Argentina’s rate of inflation is the highest in the world. But persistent inflation was only part of the nation’s economic woes. Crushing regulations brought about by a hard socialist administrative state prevented any semblance of a free-market economy.
Argentinians had had enough. Voters recently elected the self-described anarcho-libertarian, Javier Milei, who is attempting to repair the poor economy he inherited with radical pro-market shock therapy. Dislodging an entrenched deep state won’t be easy, but it is notable that Milei’s political base is made up in large part of young voters who seem exceptionally motivated to embrace the reforms of the new president.
Another example of radical changes in a nation from statism to free-market democracy is, of course, the demise of the Soviet Union, initiated with Ronald Reagan’s challenge: “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” While Russia itself can hardly be called a free-market state – it’s more like a kleptocracy – dozens of former Soviet satellite states are enjoying freedoms that they never had when they were locked behind the Iron Curtain.
Here in the United States, recent years have seen several historic shifts toward more conservative, free-market-based legislative bodies. In 2016, the Kentucky House of Representatives, the state’s lower house, not only flipped from Progressive to Republican control for the first time in nearly 100 years, but also secured a super-majority of representatives.
Although incremental changes in the body politic are probably the norm, these examples demonstrate what can happen when a majority of voters reach the breaking point over the way they are being governed. And it doesn’t necessarily result only in the election of politicians.
For states with direct democracy, voters can affect big changes via the initiative power. Proposition 13, passed overwhelmingly in 1978, is the best example. It not only reset California politics in a fundamental way, but it also spurred other states to adopt similar laws to limit the size and scope of government.
Getting back to the question at hand, how bad does it have to get in
California before voters revolt and demand more accountability, less corruption, and better services for their tax dollars? Although we’re not as bad as Argentina (thankfully, California can’t print its own currency), only a third of registered voters think California is moving in the right direction.
A 57% majority of Californians think the state is on the wrong track, according to a recent poll by the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley.
Change won’t be easy. California’s entire political structure is aligned against change and favors the status quo. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
Jon Coupal is president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.